Article: Managerial Changes Rarely Improve Results

[QPR Report]

Edit: Bump again

from three years ago...But actually one of my more relevant bumps!

Telegraph
Mark Hughes the 49th manager to go in 2009 - but change rarely improves results

When Mark Hughes was sacked by Manchester City he was the 49th manager to leave his post in 2009 and statistics show that to be the norm.

By John Ley Published: 7:33PM GMT 22 Dec 2009

That more than half the managers in English football lose their job every year would be considered shocking in any other profession but, as the statistics show, in football it is not unusual.

And a Telegraph survey proves that sacking the manager rarely reaps dividends. Of the 49 to have left in 2009, only nine departed for a new position.

And of the 49 changes in 2009, only 19 brought an improvement to the club's fortunes with the team better off now than when the manager left.

In 20 cases, the club were worse off, while the other 10 teams are in the same position they were in at the time of the departure.

A good example is at Middlesbrough. Gareth Southgate led the Championship club to an impressive start of four games without loss or a goal conceded but chairman Steve Gibson, who is renowned for his patience, finally sacked the former England international in October with the club in fourth place.

Gordon Strachan replaced him – and is still waiting for his first win after eight games, the 2-0 reverse at Newcastle on Sunday being the Scot's sixth defeat leaving the club in 14th place.

Hughes's departure means that more managers have left their jobs in a calendar year since 2006, when managers were at their most vulnerable with 62 leaving.

The figure has levelled off and, approaching the new year, there have been just two casualties in the Premier League this season. The most surprising statistic was the fact that the first, Paul Hart, survived until Nov 24.

That is the latest date a sacking has taken place during a season since Alain Perrin similarly left Fratton Park – curiously the Frenchman was sacked on the same date in 2005.
The continued trend of managers losing their jobs –nearly 300 have left in six years – has concerned their ruling body, the League Managers Association.
Chief executive Richard Bevan said: "As expectations and desire for success continue to rise, results, constant pressure and the financial impact of losing league status all put significant pressure on personnel in a club.
"Managers have to focus on the short term rather than installing structures for developing the club long term. Sadly there is no perfect system to deliver success."
Bevan believes greater investment is required to improve the lifespan of managers. He added: "It is clear we have to invest heavily in the development pathway and in early 2010 we will be appointing a lifestyle officer to continue our efforts in this area.
"We are looking at all areas of football management, the training and development of young managers, the recruitment process, standard contracts for all LMA members and ways to improve the communication process between the club, the manager and the fans, setting clear, realistic targets and then managing expectations.
"The LMA are constantly highlighting the importance of continuity in the long-term success of a football club. Successful managers have all been given time in their role.
"It is also interesting to note how a comparable industry works.
"The Deloitte Annual Review of Football Finance states that the revenue generated by the 92 Premier League and Football League clubs in the 2008-09 season was £2.5 bn.
"But less than £500,000 per year is invested in education and training for its technical and management staff including referees, which represents 0.02 per cent of the turnover of the 92 clubs.
"However, research into other industries including the UK film industry, reveals the difference heavy investment in training can make.
"The film industry's turnover in 2006 was £3.3 bn, of which at least £10 million per year was reinvested by the industry into education, training and personal development for a workforce of technical and management staff."

MANAGERIAL DEPARTURES
2009 49
2008 48
2007 45
2006 62
2005 35
2004 51

DEPARTURES 2009
JANUARY
10: Jimmy Mullen (Walsall, L1). Position: 12. Position Now: 10. +2.
14: Glenn Roeder (Norwich, C). Position: 20. Position Now: 3. +17.
18: Martin Ling (L Orient, L1). Position: 21. Position Now: 20. +1.
23: Jan Poortvliet (Southampton C). Position: 23. Position Now: L1,15. -16.
FEBRUARY
8: Tony Adams (Portsmouth, P). Position: 16. Position Now: 20. -4.
9: Luiz Felipe-Scolari (Chelsea, P). Position: 4. Position Now: 1. +3.
16: Russell Slade (Yeovil, L1). Position: 21. Position Now: 17. +4.
21: Micky Adams (Brighton, L1). Position: 21. Position Now: 21. =.
MARCH
3: John Sheridan (Oldham, L1). Position: 4. Position Now: 19. -15.
APRIL
9: Paulo Sousa (QPR, C). Position: 10. Position Now: 10. =.
22: Graham Turner (Hereford, L1). Position: 24. Position Now: L2,17. -17.
30: Dave Penney* (Darlington, 2). Position: 12. Position Now: 20. -8.
MAY
2: Dean Glover (Port Vale, L2). Position: 18. Position Now: 16. +2.
6: Jim McGannon (Stockport, L1). Position: 18. Position Now: 24. -6.
6: Lee Richardson (Chesterfield, L2). Position: 10. Position Now: 5. +5.
12: Steve Coppell (Reading, C). Position: 4. Position Now: 20. -16.
25: Ricky Sbragia (Sunderland, P). Position: 16. Position Now: 10. +6.
30: Guus Hiddink* (Chelsea, P). Position: 3. Position Now: 1. +2.
JUNE
3: Steve Bruce* (Wigan, P). Position: 11. Position Now: 16. -5.
4: Brendan Rodgers* (Watford, C). Position: 13. Position Now: 13. =.
5: Ronnie Moore (Tranmere, L1). Position: 7. Position Now: 22. -15.
15: Roberto Martinez* (Swansea, C). Position: 8. Position Now: 5. +3.
18: Tony Mowbray* (WBA, P). Position: 20. Position Now: C,2. -2.
30: Roberto Di Matteo (MK Dons, L1). Position: 3. Position Now: 9. -6.
JULY
9: Mark Wotte (Southampton, C). Position: 23. Position Now: L1,15. +16.
AUGUST
14: Bryan Gunn (Norwich, L1). Position: 23. Position Now: 3. +20.
18: Paul Lambert* (Colchester, L1). Position: 1. Position Now: 4. -3.
30: Simon Davey (Barnsley, C). Position: 24. Position Now: 16. +8.
SEPTEMBER
2: Peter Jackson (Lincoln, L2). Position: 17. Position Now: 22. -5.
8: Stuart Gray (Northampton, L2). Position: 16. Position Now: 20. -4.
9: Mark Robins* (Rotherham, L2). Position: 1. Position Now: 3. -2.
27: Colin Todd (Darlington, L2). Position: 24. Position Now: 24. =.
OCTOBER
2: Gudjon Thordarson (Crewe, L2). Position: 14. Position Now: 13. +1.
9: John Barnes (Tranmere, L1). Position: 23. Position Now: 22. +1.
9: Peter Taylor (Wycombe, L1). Position: 24. Position Now: 23. +1.
12: Ian McParland (Notts Co, L2). Position: 5. Position Now: 6. -1.
14: Gary Waddock* (Aldershot, L2). Position: 5. Position Now: 8. -3.
19: Mike Newell (Grimsby, L2). Position: 23. Position Now: 23. =.
20: Gareth Southgate (Middlesbrough, C). Position: 4. Position Now: 14. -10.
NOVEMBER
1: Russell Slade (Brighton, L1). Position: 21. Position Now: 21. =.
9: Darren Ferguson (Peterborough, C). Position: 24. Position Now: 23. +1.
24: Paul Hart (Portsmouth, P). Position: 20. Position Now: 20. =.
DECEMBER
10: Paul Sturrock (Plymouth, C). Position: 23. Position Now: 24. -1.
11: Martin Allen (Cheltenham, L2). Position: 20. Position Now: 21. -1.
12: Brian Laws (Sheffield Wed, C). Position: 22. Position Now: 22. =.
15: Hans Backe (Notts Co, L2). Position: 6. Position Now: 6. =.
16: Brendan Rodgers (Reading, C). Position: 21. Position Now: 20. +1.
16: Jim Magilton (QPR, C). Position: 12. Position Now: 10. +2.
19: Mark Hughes (Manchester C, P). Position: 6. Position Now: 6. =.
*Manager moving to another job.

www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/premierleague/mancity/6866890/Mark-Hughes-the-49th-manager-to-go-in-2009---but-change-rarely-improves-results.html

[QPR Report]

Actually it's an interesting article especially given what we keep doing

[Macmoish]

BUMP from two years ago...


Also this piece, I posted three years ago at this time (Guess the time for such articles)

Premiership Managerial Sackings - How Effective
« Thread Started on Dec 23, 2008, 8:01am »

The Telegraph/John Ley - Harry Redknapp the exception as trigger happy chairmen count cost of sackings

Just how good a decision was it to sack Paul Ince? How prudent was Roy Keane's walk-out? Why did Kevin Keegan leave? And, more importantly, are the early departures at Premier League level good for the clubs involved?

The excitement provoked by Sam Allardyce's winning start was evident, but the facts suggest it may not all success all the way.

So far, six Premier League managers have left their clubs. That represents 30 per cent of all 20 top-flight managers, and that is before the half way stage. Last season, at this stage, seven had departed.

Ironically, the next man to leave a Premier League club was Sam Allardyce, sacked by Newcastle in early January, but he was the eighth and last casualty.

So is losing your manager a good thing? At Newcastle, Kevin Keegan's second spell in charge saw him win six of 21 games, a success rate of 29 per cent. Joe Kinnear has won four of 12 games, representing a third of success. In addition Kinnear has drawn six games and lost only two.

Alan Curbishley won 39 per cent of his games at Upton Park; Gianfranco Zola's record is a meagre 20 per cent. And while Juande Ramos's success was 39 per cent, Harry Redknapp's percentage success is an impressive 50 per cent.

Redknapp won 54 of his 127 games at Fratton (43 per cent), but Tony Adams has won less than a quarter of his 13 games as successor.

But Ricky Sbragia has had just three games as caretaker manager following the surprise departure of Keane (42 per cent success), but he has won two and scored eight goals in the process.

So, only Redknapp has brought a marked improvement, suggesting that you can take the man out of the club, but can you rarely get an instant improvement. Chairmen beware.

MANAGERIAL CHANGES: THE FACTS

West Ham
AC: P71 W28 Success 39%.
GZ: P14 W 3 Success 21%

Newcastle
KK: P21 W6 Success 29%
JK: P12 W 4 Success 33%

Tottenham
JR: P54 W21 Success 39%
HR: P10 W5 Success 50%

Portsmouth
HR: P127 W54 Success 43%
TA: P10 W2 Success 20%

Sunderland
RK: P100 W42 Success 42%
RS: P3 W2 Success 67%

Blackburn
PI: P21 W6 Success 29%
SA: P1 W1 Success 100%

www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footbal....s-Football.html


Read more: qprreport.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1001#ixzz1hFYRgxLm

[sirpiechucker]

Really good article.

Who's to say that If NW was to be fired that the right manager would be brought in? I'd assume that the Blackburn fans must have thought when SA was fired that someone better than Kean would be put in charge. I have a lot of faith in TF but I've no idea who he would appoint given the chance to appoint his own manager.

[Macmoish]

Bump again... Three years ago. Always relevant!

[ingham]

A manager comes to a Club hoping the Club has enough money to disguise his lack of talent.

And the Club appoints a manager hoping he is talented enough to disguise the Club's lack of resources.

That's the problem in a nutshell.

This nightmare is compounded by the following.

1. There is next to nothing to win.

2. The bigger Clubs win it.

3. The much sought-after mid-table mediocrity is actually harder to achieve than winning the title, because only a handful of Clubs are in line to win the title, while at least 50 Clubs are hoping they will be 'the next Fulham'.

Unable to earn enough to make a difference, and incapable of identifying anyone talent enough to increase earnings sufficiently, they just spend.

And that induces panic because the Club's dependence on borrowed money means that even if results do go well, the value of the Club's losses far outstrips the value of what it buys with the borrowed money that creates the losses.

So it just repeats the same mistakes over and over again. The squad is replaced over and over again. The manager is replaced over and over again. Borrowed money is lost over and over again.

And because they are losing money hand over fist, year in and year out, expectations must be inflated far beyond the Club's capabilities.

So we get 'the Champions League'. The '45,000 capacity' stadium, and the ultimate paradox. QPR, like most other Clubs,
isn't driven by results, because it can't get the results, and therefore it can't pay by results.

It must pay in advance. Big, 3 or 4-year contracts based not on the talent the present squad possesses, but on the sheer incompetence of the last lot.

Just as Redknapp must be paid enormous sums whether he succeeds or not because his predecessors were so bad.

The worse we do, the more expensive it gets. And the more expensive it gets, the more impossible it gets to sign REAL talent, because real talent would have to be paid vastly more than the losers around the Club in the last however many years.

So we can't afford better players because we throw so much money after the bad ones, and we are so desperate, we daren't make the big money conditional on getting results.

Which opens the Club up to almost any old dross, because any old dross can lose one match after the other. This makes life easier for the manager and the Board, who don't need any specialist knowledge, any real track record, or any particular talent to operate. The game is full of rubbish, but there are very few real talents, they are much harder to find and to keep, and few Clubs can manage it.

But any Club run by people with absolutely no talent themselves can sign players and managers with no talent.

And as they all make enormous sums of money, while only the Club sustains heavy losses, they don't mind doing it over and over again. In the case of players and managers, to Club after Club. And in the case of investors, over and over again to their 'own' Club.

[Macmoish]

Bump...

[Jo-Onenil]

It does when the manager is clearly to fault, as it was the case at Palace where Ollie admitted he didnt have the energy to go on, or at Sunderland where DiCanio was a clown. But I doubt the likes of West Brom or Spurs will improve after the change they made, let alone Cardiff...

[Macmoish]

From few years back. Stats obviously change, but underlying ...But every now and then...such as Pulis...exception proves the rule