I'm in the keep Warnock camp, but this is an interesting article from last year. Note that it refers to thise teams in the bottom three, but someone has to replace those who get out of the scrap:
blogs.independent.co.uk/2011/05/17/to-save-yourself-from-relegation-history-says-sack-the-manager/Why sacking the manager is the best way to save a team from relegation
Continuity, we are told, is the key. Look at United and Sir Alex, Everton and Moyes, Arsenal and Wenger – this is how to run a successful football club.
But if a club finds itself at the other end of the Premier League table, do the same rules apply? Does continuity simply mean continuing on a downward spiral that eventually ends in the Championship?
These thoughts follow the relegation of West Ham and their decision to retain the services of Avram Grant right through the season. For once, a club’s decision to stand by their manager has been widely criticised. They should have been shot of Grant much earlier apparently.
So where continuity is seen as the key to long term success – is it possible that chop and change is the key to short-term survival?
A study of the previous 10 Premier League seasons paints an interesting picture. I looked at the 30 clubs that were in the bottom three at the turn of the year (a good mid-season indicator of how a team is faring) and then compared them to the 30 that were eventually relegated to the Championship.
Of those 30 clubs in the bottom three at the turn of the year, 10 survived. What is revealed is a startling fact – all 10 of those clubs had something in common – they changed their manager mid-season.
Some classic examples where a change of boss inspired survival spring to mind. Bryan Robson replaced Gary Megson at West Brom in 2004/05. The Baggies would became the first club in the history of the Premier League that beat the drop having been bottom of the table on Christmas day. More recently there was the appointment of Roy Hodgson at Fulham, who led the Cottagers to four wins in their last five games, culminating in victory over Portsmouth at a sun drenched Fratton Park to keep them afloat on goal difference.
Of those 30 clubs in the bottom three at New Year, 20 didn’t survive. Eight of those clubs stuck with their manager and in every single case they were relegated.
So then, despite the regularly spouted wisdom as to the importance of continuity, it would seem that with the threat of relegation looming there is a more successful alternative. Quite simply, if a club is in the bottom three at New Year, their best chance of survival lies with a change of manager. Just this season, we’ve seen West Brom replace Roberto Di Matteo with Roy Hodgson and slip away from the clutches of the bottom three.
Yet a change of boss, rather like buying shares, comes with a warning: Clubs can stay up as well as go down. Of the 20 teams relegated that had been in the bottom three at the turn of the year, twelve of them changed the boss to no avail.
See below for a full run-down of the last 10 seasons to see which teams were bottom at the turn of the year, who survived and who went down…
Key: NY = bottom three at New Year, SE = bottom three at end of the season, Green = survived, Blue = relegated and changed manager, Red = relegated and kept manager
2009/10
NY: Bolton (Gary Megson replaced by Owen Coyle), Hull (Phil Brown replaced by Iain Dowie), Portsmouth (Paul Hart replaced by Avram Grant)
SE: Burnley (Owen Coyle replaced by Brian Laws), Hull (Phil Brown replaced by Iain Dowie), Portsmouth (Paul Hart replaced by Avram Grant)
2008/09
NY: Tottenham (Juande Ramos replaced by Harry Redknapp), Blackburn (Paul Ince replaced by Sam Allardyce), West Brom (stuck with Tony Mowbray)
SE: Newcastle (Sam Allardyce sacked, Kevin Keegan resigned, Joe Kinnear had a health scare and was replaced by Alan Shearer), Middlesbrough (stuck with Gareth Southgate), West Brom (stuck with Tony Mowbray)
2007/08
NY: Wigan (Chrish Hutchings replaced by Steve Bruce), Fulham (Lawrie Sanchez replaced by Roy Hodgson), Derby County (Billy Davies replaced by Paul Jewell)
SE: Reading (stuck with Steve Coppell), Birmingham (Steve Bruce replaced by Alex McLeish), Derby County (Billy Davies replaced by Paul Jewell)
2006/07
NY: West Ham (Alan Pardew replaced by Alan Curbishley), Charlton (Iain Dowie sacked, Les Reed sacked and was replaced by Alan Pardew), Watford (stuck with Aidy Boothroyd)
SE: Sheffield United (stuck with Neil Warnock), Charlton (Iain Dowie sacked, Les Reed sacked and was replaced by Alan Pardew),Watford (stuck with Aidy Boothroyd)
2005/06
NY: Portsmouth (Alain Perrin replaced by Harry Redknapp), Birmingham (stuck with Steve Bruce), Sunderland (Mick McCarthy replaced in by Kevin Ball on caretaker basis)
SE: Birmingham (stuck with Steve Bruce), West Brom (stuck with Bryan Robson), Sunderland (Mick McCarthy replaced in by Kevin Ball on caretaker basis)
2004/05
NY: Crystal Palace (stuck with Iain Dowie), Southampton (Steve Wigley replaced by Harry Redknapp), West Brom (Gary Megson replaced by Bryan Robson)
SE: Crystal Palace (stuck with Iain Dowie), Norwich City (stuck with Nigel Worthington), Southampton (Steve Wigley replaced by Harry Redknapp),
2003/04
NY: Tottenham (Glenn Hoddle replaced by David Pleat on caretaker basis), Leeds (Peter Reid replaced by Eddie Gray), Wolves (stuck with Dave Jones)
SE: Leicester (stuck with Micky Adams), Leeds (Peter Reid replaced by Eddie Gray), Wolves (stuck with Dave Jones)
2002/03
NY: Sunderland (Peter Reid replaced by Howard Wilkinson, replaced by Mick McCarthy), West Brom (stuck with Gary Megson), West Ham (Glenn Roeder replaced by Trevor Brooking on health grounds)
SE: West Ham (Glenn Roeder replaced by Trevor Brooking on health grounds) West Brom (stuck with Gary Megson), Sunderland (Peter Reid replaced by Howard Wilkinson, replaced by Mick McCarthy),
2001/02
NY: Derby (Jim Smith, replaced by Colin Todd, replaced by John Gregory), Ipswich (stuck with George Burley), Leicester (Peter Taylor, replaced by Dave Bassett, replaced by Micky Adams)
SE: Ipswich (stuck with George Burley), Derby (Jim Smith, replaced by Colin Todd, replaced by John Gregory), Leicester (Peter Taylor, replaced by Dave Bassett, replaced by Micky Adams)
2000/2001
NY: Middlesbrough (Bryan Robson replaced by Terry Venables), Manchester City (Stuck with Joe Royal), Bradford (Chris Hutchings replaced by Jim Jeffries)
SE: Manchester City (Stuck with Joe Royal), Coventry (Stuck with Gordon Strachan), Bradford (Chris Hutchings replaced by Jim Jeffries)