Post by Macmoish on Mar 29, 2015 14:59:59 GMT
Seemingly 37
www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/2014-15/mar/290315-relegation-safety-threshold-now-37-points.html
News & Features
Sunday 29 March 2015
Relegation safety threshold now 37 points
Premierleague.com looks at the points required to stay up and why defences are all-important
Tradition has it that clubs concerned for their status in the Barclays Premier League target the total of 40 points in order to consider themselves safe from relegation. On many occasions a manager has expressed his relief at reaching this tally and the intention for his side to go on and see how high they can finish in the table.
Indeed only three times since the Barclays Premier League was reduced to 20 clubs, in 1995, have a team with 40 points or more gone down to the second tier and none have suffered such a fate in the past 11 seasons.
The unfortunate three who did go down despite having reached the 40-point threshold of so-called safety were Sunderland in 1996/97, Bolton Wanderers the following season and the West Ham United side of 2002/03. The closest since then was Alex McLeish’s Birmingham City side who were relegated with 39 points in the 2011/12 campaign.
A close analysis of relegation in the years since the move to 20 clubs has revealed that a more likely safety threshold is a total of 37 points. Only one team, the Sheffield United side of 2006/07, have exceeded that points total and gone down.
Over the last 19 seasons, the average points-total for the team finishing 17th, a place above the relegation zone, is 38.4. However, if the last 10 seasons are analysed this number has fallen even further: on average, since the2004/05 season, fewer than 37 points have been needed by the 17th-placed team to avoid the dreaded drop.
Points totals of BPL's 17th-placed teams
Team Season Points
Southampton 1995/96
38
Coventry 1996/97
41
Everton 1997/98
40
Southampton 1998/99
41
Bradford 1999/00
36
Derby 2000/01
42
Sunderland 2001/02
40
Bolton 2002/03
44
Everton 2003/04
39
West Brom
2004/05
34
Portsmouth
2005/06
38
Wigan
2006/07
38
Fulham
2007/08
36
Hull
2008/09
35
West Ham
2009/10
35
Wolves
2010/11
40
QPR
2011/12
37
Sunderland
2012/13
39
West Brom
2013/14
36
Ave points total 38.37
A similar fall in the points by teams in 18th place has been seen of late. An overall average of 35.8 points have been won by the team who came closest to avoiding relegation. In the last 10 years this has dropped below 35 points to an average of 34.9.
Points totals of BPL's 18th-placed teams
Team Season Points
Man City 1995/96
38
Sunderland 1996/97
40
Bolton 1997/98
40
Charlton 1998/99
36
Wimbledon 1999/00
33
Man City 2000/01
34
Ipswich 2001/02
36
West Ham 2002/03
42
Leicester 2003/04
33
Crystal Pal 2004/05
33
Birmingham 2005/06
34
Sheffield Utd 2006/07
38
Reading 2007/08
36
Newcastle 2008/09
34
Burnley 2009/10
30
Birmingham 2010/11
39
Bolton 2011/12
36
Wigan 2012/13
36
Norwich 2013/14
33
Ave points total 35.80
Some people place a lot of emphasis on goalscorers as a means of getting teams out of trouble at the wrong end of the table, but analysis of the goals scored and conceded by the teams in the bottom five at the season’s end over the past 19 campaigns indicates that it is in defence that a team’s priority should lie.
Clubs finishing in 16th place have scored on average 42.3 goals during the season, three more than the side lying immediately below them. But the goals conceded are, on average, essentially the same at 59 and 59.4 respectively.
However, if we look at the goals scored by the teams in 18th place, it can be seen that in fact, at 39.5, they are greater on average than the average total of the side who finished safely above them.
A look at goals conceded, on the other hand, shows a significant difference between the 17th-placed club and the one in 18th. The team that finished immediately above the bottom three conceded on average 59.4 goals, almost four goals fewer on average than the side in 18th. Things get significantly worse in the goals-against column for the bottom two sides, too.
Average goals scored/conceded since 1995/96
Pos GF GA
16 42.32 59
17 39.32 59.42
18 39.47 63.11
19 39 68.11
20 33.21 69.74
Looking at the present Barclays Premier League table the importance of defence is clear to see. No team have conceded more goals than any of Burnley, Queens Park Rangers and Leicester City, the sides in the bottom three (Newcastle in 12th have conceded the same number, 48, as Leicester).
The two sides immediately above the relegation zone, Aston Villa and Sunderland, have scored fewer goals than the three lowest–ranked teams but have better defences.
BPL table 2014/15 after Matchweek 30
Pos Team P GF GA GD Pts
16 Aston Villa 30 19 39 -20 28
17 Sunderland 30 23 44 -21 26
18 Burnley 30 26 49 -23 25
19 QPR 30 31 54 -23 22
20 Leicester 29 27 48 -21 19
At the moment, the three sides who were promoted last season are occupying the bottom three places. History would suggest that one of Burnley, Queens Park Rangers and Leicester City will stay up, because on only one previous occasion have all three promoted clubs gone straight back down. That occurred in 1997/98, when Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers and Crystal Palace returned to whence they came.
On average, until this season, promoted sides have had an average chance of 58.2% of avoiding an immediate drop, with 27 of the 68 promoted teams sent straight back to the Championship. This has improved significantly of late with five of the last 18 promoted sides having since suffered immediate relegation.
Latest News
www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/2014-15/mar/290315-relegation-safety-threshold-now-37-points.html
News & Features
Sunday 29 March 2015
Relegation safety threshold now 37 points
Premierleague.com looks at the points required to stay up and why defences are all-important
Tradition has it that clubs concerned for their status in the Barclays Premier League target the total of 40 points in order to consider themselves safe from relegation. On many occasions a manager has expressed his relief at reaching this tally and the intention for his side to go on and see how high they can finish in the table.
Indeed only three times since the Barclays Premier League was reduced to 20 clubs, in 1995, have a team with 40 points or more gone down to the second tier and none have suffered such a fate in the past 11 seasons.
The unfortunate three who did go down despite having reached the 40-point threshold of so-called safety were Sunderland in 1996/97, Bolton Wanderers the following season and the West Ham United side of 2002/03. The closest since then was Alex McLeish’s Birmingham City side who were relegated with 39 points in the 2011/12 campaign.
A close analysis of relegation in the years since the move to 20 clubs has revealed that a more likely safety threshold is a total of 37 points. Only one team, the Sheffield United side of 2006/07, have exceeded that points total and gone down.
Over the last 19 seasons, the average points-total for the team finishing 17th, a place above the relegation zone, is 38.4. However, if the last 10 seasons are analysed this number has fallen even further: on average, since the2004/05 season, fewer than 37 points have been needed by the 17th-placed team to avoid the dreaded drop.
Points totals of BPL's 17th-placed teams
Team Season Points
Southampton 1995/96
38
Coventry 1996/97
41
Everton 1997/98
40
Southampton 1998/99
41
Bradford 1999/00
36
Derby 2000/01
42
Sunderland 2001/02
40
Bolton 2002/03
44
Everton 2003/04
39
West Brom
2004/05
34
Portsmouth
2005/06
38
Wigan
2006/07
38
Fulham
2007/08
36
Hull
2008/09
35
West Ham
2009/10
35
Wolves
2010/11
40
QPR
2011/12
37
Sunderland
2012/13
39
West Brom
2013/14
36
Ave points total 38.37
A similar fall in the points by teams in 18th place has been seen of late. An overall average of 35.8 points have been won by the team who came closest to avoiding relegation. In the last 10 years this has dropped below 35 points to an average of 34.9.
Points totals of BPL's 18th-placed teams
Team Season Points
Man City 1995/96
38
Sunderland 1996/97
40
Bolton 1997/98
40
Charlton 1998/99
36
Wimbledon 1999/00
33
Man City 2000/01
34
Ipswich 2001/02
36
West Ham 2002/03
42
Leicester 2003/04
33
Crystal Pal 2004/05
33
Birmingham 2005/06
34
Sheffield Utd 2006/07
38
Reading 2007/08
36
Newcastle 2008/09
34
Burnley 2009/10
30
Birmingham 2010/11
39
Bolton 2011/12
36
Wigan 2012/13
36
Norwich 2013/14
33
Ave points total 35.80
Some people place a lot of emphasis on goalscorers as a means of getting teams out of trouble at the wrong end of the table, but analysis of the goals scored and conceded by the teams in the bottom five at the season’s end over the past 19 campaigns indicates that it is in defence that a team’s priority should lie.
Clubs finishing in 16th place have scored on average 42.3 goals during the season, three more than the side lying immediately below them. But the goals conceded are, on average, essentially the same at 59 and 59.4 respectively.
However, if we look at the goals scored by the teams in 18th place, it can be seen that in fact, at 39.5, they are greater on average than the average total of the side who finished safely above them.
A look at goals conceded, on the other hand, shows a significant difference between the 17th-placed club and the one in 18th. The team that finished immediately above the bottom three conceded on average 59.4 goals, almost four goals fewer on average than the side in 18th. Things get significantly worse in the goals-against column for the bottom two sides, too.
Average goals scored/conceded since 1995/96
Pos GF GA
16 42.32 59
17 39.32 59.42
18 39.47 63.11
19 39 68.11
20 33.21 69.74
Looking at the present Barclays Premier League table the importance of defence is clear to see. No team have conceded more goals than any of Burnley, Queens Park Rangers and Leicester City, the sides in the bottom three (Newcastle in 12th have conceded the same number, 48, as Leicester).
The two sides immediately above the relegation zone, Aston Villa and Sunderland, have scored fewer goals than the three lowest–ranked teams but have better defences.
BPL table 2014/15 after Matchweek 30
Pos Team P GF GA GD Pts
16 Aston Villa 30 19 39 -20 28
17 Sunderland 30 23 44 -21 26
18 Burnley 30 26 49 -23 25
19 QPR 30 31 54 -23 22
20 Leicester 29 27 48 -21 19
At the moment, the three sides who were promoted last season are occupying the bottom three places. History would suggest that one of Burnley, Queens Park Rangers and Leicester City will stay up, because on only one previous occasion have all three promoted clubs gone straight back down. That occurred in 1997/98, when Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers and Crystal Palace returned to whence they came.
On average, until this season, promoted sides have had an average chance of 58.2% of avoiding an immediate drop, with 27 of the 68 promoted teams sent straight back to the Championship. This has improved significantly of late with five of the last 18 promoted sides having since suffered immediate relegation.
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